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Russian methanol market & project expansions-forthcoming study

Russia accounts for about 5% of global methanol production and is an important source of exports in the international marketplace. Prior to the spread of COVID-19 and its economic repercussions a number of large-scale methanol projects were planned for Russia which would have a significant impact on the country’s export capability significantly. The economic aftermath of the pandemic may be so huge that some of the grassroot methanol projects that seemed rational investments at the end of 2019 may start to appear dubious at least. Projects already in process such as the 500,000 tpa plants under construction at Shchekinoazot and Nizhnekamskneftekhim may see minor delays, but the deep-sea projects particularly in the north west of Russia may be subject to re-evaluation, lengthy delays and possible cancellation.

Russian Methanol Market 2013-2019 (unit-kilo tons)
	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Production	3.5	2.6	3.6	3.6	4.0	4.3	4.4
Exports	1.4	1.5	1.3	1.5	1.3	1.8	2.1
Consumption	2.2	1.1	2.3	2.1	2.7	2.4	2.3

The Russian market has been stable for the past decade with exports and production rising slowly on the domestic market seeing little change. In 2019 methanol production rose to 4.4 million tons against 4.3 million tons in 2018 whilst exports rose from 1.827 million tons 2.109 million tons. In the period 2013 to 2019 domestic consumption so a little change rising from 2.2 million tons in 2013 to 2.3 million tons in 2019. The only year where consumption dropped was in 2014 following the Russian occupation of Crimea. Production has since recovered helped by the introduction of new capacity in the Tula Oblast and debottlenecking increases at a number of other plants.

Despite the export orientation of the Russian methanol industry, the lack of port infrastructure means that shipments need to be made by rail most of which goes to Finland for further distribution. The only current terminal for the transhipment of methanol from Russia is located in the Far East at the Vostochny port (Nakhodka), but the volumes shipped through this route are small due to the lack production in this region.

This situation may change in the next few years with the introduction of the Nakhodka Methanol and Fertiliser Plant, which is one of ten possible projects that could be operational by 2025 or 2026. Aside the two 500,000 tpa projects at Shchekinoazot and Nizhnekamskneftekhim, other projects are under design or scheduling for more than a million tons of capacity and nearly all those projects are focused exclusively on export markets. Some of the project ideas may disappear as the economic consequences of COVID-19 become evident. This could result from a number of factors such as a revised lower global growth rate for methanol consumption, difficulties in securing finance to build plants and a slower rate of industrial development.

Domestically the market remains stable without much change up or down despite efforts of some producers such as Metafrax to reduce the dependency on export activity. Methanol consumption in Russia is divided almost evenly between domestic market merchant sales and internal processing. Applications for domestic market sales in Russia include MTBE, resins and solvents, whilst some producers use methanol internally for further production into formaldehyde. Overall, the Russian domestic market sales are growing at 1.5-2% per annum whilst export volumes are rising at faster rate.

Russia has the potential to become one of the world’s largest methanol producers, particularly taking into account the competitive advantage of the low gas price. At the same time the economics of methanol projects in Russia are very sensitive to the size of capital investments, and logistics represent a huge challenge. In short plants need the combination of port and feedstock access to be competitive in the world market, particularly when prices are low, and margins tighten. In this study we will examine some of the aspects affecting each of the investment projects planned for Russia, and perhaps identifying which projects have the best prospects, after we have examined the current market situation regarding production, exports and domestic market sales.

Russian methanol market & project expansions-forthcoming study

Tables available on request

Russian methanol production, trade data and domestic sales by individual producer 2019-2019

Russian methanol exports by destination 2018-2020, by volume and value

Russian methanol report including production, exports, domestic sales and projects-to be published later in 2020

Russian methanol

Russian petrochemical markets

Aromatics

Russian polymer & rubber markets

Russian chemical derivatives & organic chemicals

Central Europe