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Russian monomer and polyolefin production trends and the impact of ZapSibNeftekhim in Q1 2020

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Table-Russian Isoprene Rubber Export Destination Data, January 2017 to March 2020 posted Friday, May 29, 2020

Table-Russian methanol production, export and domestic sales data by producer posted Friday, May 29, 2020

Table-Detailed Russian PTA Imports up to March 2020 posted Friday, May 29, 2020

Russian Paraxylene Exports 2013-2020 (March), volume and price posted Friday, May 29, 2020

 

 

 

Russian petrochemical markets

 

Aromatics

Russian polymer & rubber markets

Russian methanol

Russian chemical derivatives & organic chemicals

Central Europe

 

 

Russian methanol market & project expansions-forthcoming study

Russia accounts for about 5% of global methanol production and is an important source of exports in the international marketplace.  Prior to the spread of COVID-19 and its economic repercussions a number of large-scale methanol projects were planned for Russia which would have a significant impact on the country’s export capability significantly.  The economic aftermath of the pandemic may be so huge that some of the grassroot methanol projects that seemed rational investments at the end of 2019 may start to appear dubious at least.  Projects already in process such as the 500,000 tpa plants under construction at Shchekinoazot and Nizhnekamskneftekhim may see minor delays, but the deep-sea projects particularly in the north west of Russia may be subject to re-evaluation, lengthy delays and possible cancellation. 

Russian Methanol Market 2013-2019 (unit-kilo tons)

 

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Production

3.5

2.6

3.6

3.6

4.0

4.3

4.4

Exports

1.4

1.5

1.3

1.5

1.3

1.8

2.1

Consumption

2.2

1.1

2.3

2.1

2.7

2.4

2.3

 

The Russian market has been stable for the past decade with exports and production rising slowly on the domestic market seeing little change. In 2019 methanol production rose to 4.4 million tons against 4.3 million tons in 2018 whilst exports rose from 1.827 million tons 2.109 million tons.  In the period 2013 to 2019 domestic consumption so a little change rising from 2.2 million tons in 2013 to 2.3 million tons in 2019. The only year where consumption dropped was in 2014 following the Russian occupation of Crimea.  Production has since recovered helped by the introduction of new capacity in the Tula Oblast and debottlenecking increases at a number of other plants. 

Despite the export orientation of the Russian methanol industry, the lack of port infrastructure means that shipments need to be made by rail most of which goes to Finland for further distribution.  The only current terminal for the transhipment of methanol from Russia is located in the Far East at the Vostochny port (Nakhodka), but the volumes shipped through this route are small due to the lack production in this region.

This situation may change in the next few years with the introduction of the Nakhodka Methanol and Fertiliser Plant, which is one of ten possible projects that could be operational by 2025 or 2026.  Aside the two 500,000 tpa projects at Shchekinoazot and Nizhnekamskneftekhim, other projects are under design or scheduling for more than a million tons of capacity and nearly all those projects are focused exclusively on export markets.  Some of the project ideas may disappear as the economic consequences of COVID-19 become evident.  This could result from a number of factors such as a revised lower global growth rate for methanol consumption, difficulties in securing finance to build plants and a slower rate of industrial development.

Domestically the market remains stable without much change up or down despite efforts of some producers such as Metafrax to reduce the dependency on export activity.  Methanol consumption in Russia is divided almost evenly between domestic market merchant sales and internal processing.  Applications for domestic market sales in Russia include MTBE, resins and solvents, whilst some producers use methanol internally for further production into formaldehyde.  Overall, the Russian domestic market sales are growing at 1.5-2% per annum whilst export volumes are rising at faster rate.

Russia has the potential to become one of the world’s largest methanol producers, particularly taking into account the competitive advantage of the low gas price.  At the same time the economics of methanol projects in Russia are very sensitive to the size of capital investments, and logistics represent a huge challenge.  In short plants need the combination of port and feedstock access to be competitive in the world market, particularly when prices are low, and margins tighten.  In this study we will examine some of the aspects affecting each of the investment projects planned for Russia, and perhaps identifying which projects have the best prospects, after we have examined the current market situation regarding production, exports and domestic market sales. 

Introduction. 1

Russian Market Analysis 2019. 3

Russian methanol production Jan-Dec 2019. 4

Production by plant showing output sales and plant history. 4

Akron-Veliky Novgorod. 4

Ammoni-Mendeleevsk. 5

Angarsk Petrochemical Company. 6

Azot Nevinnomyssk. 6

Azot Novomoskovsk. 7

Metafrax. 7

Novatek. 8

Shchekinoazot 8

Sibmetakhim.. 9

Tomet 10

Exports. 11

Russian methanol export sales, Jan-Dec 2019. 11

Domestic Sales. 15

Russian methanol domestic sales, Jan-Dec 2019. 15

MTBE. 15

Projects & Investment 19

Overview.. 19

Impact of Russian methanol projects. 20

Projects for existing producers and consumers. 21

Sibmetakhim methanol expansion to 1 million tpa. 21

Shchekinoazot-methanol M500 project update. 21

Nizhnekamskneftekhim-methanol plant preparations. 21

Tomet 22

Grass roots projects. 22

Far East 22

Nakhodka methanol contractor selected. 22

Skovorodino methanol project-SABIC, Marubeni and Mitsui OSK Lines. 23

Yakutsk methanol project-update. 24

Western. 25

AEON Methanol project Volgograd update. 25

Volgograd methanol project to start construction in 2021. 25

Taman terminal 26

Baltic. 26

RusKhimKom.. 26

Evrokhim-methanol project Kingisepp. 27

Baltic Gas Chemical Company-Ust Luga. 27

SAFMAR. 27

Vysotsk methanol project-update January 2020. 28

Vysotsk project 28

Exports and logistics. 30

Impact of new plants on Russian exports. 30

Russian methanol export logistics. 30

Vostochny. 31

Port Kavkaz. 32

Temryuk. 33

Vilaris terminal 33

Shchekinoazot-methanol exports to Poland. 33

Metafrax-new locomotives for transporting methanol to Finnish ports. 33

Tank-containers, wagons-either own or rental 34

Market projections to 2025 and 2030. 40

Major Russian Methanol Consumers (unit-kilo tons)

Nizhnekamskneftekhim 2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supplier

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Ammoni

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Azot Novomoskovsk

16.5

11.4

11.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

39.5

Metafrax

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Shchekinoazot

4.5

3.5

3.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

11.7

Tomet

0.0

3.0

4.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

7.1

Total

21.0

17.9

19.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

58.2

 

Nizhnekamskneftekhim 2019

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2019

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Azot Novomoskovsk

0.0

5.9

3.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.0

2.0

15.3

Metafrax

0.0

5.5

5.7

5.7

5.7

0.0

3.6

1.5

4.2

7.7

7.7

7.5

54.9

Shchekinoazot

1.0

1.0

2.8

2.4

5.2

5.7

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

3.1

3.0

43.4

Tomet

5.0

0.0

2.5

0.0

0.0

4.8

3.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.1

40.4

Ammoni

4.0

7.4

7.5

7.4

12.4

12.4

4.7

7.7

11.1

7.4

7.4

7.4

96.9

Total

9.9

19.8

21.5

15.5

23.3

22.9

17.7

19.1

25.1

24.9

26.2

25.0

250.8

 

Gazprom 2020 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supplier

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Sibmetakhim

15.3

15.6

15.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

46.1

Total

15.3

15.6

15.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

46.1

 

Gazprom 2019 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supplier

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Sibmetakhim

12.4

12.6

14.7

13.9

13.4

12.8

12.8

13.9

12.1

13.7

17.6

11.9

161.9

Total

12.4

12.6

14.7

13.9

13.4

12.8

12.8

13.9

12.1

13.7

17.6

11.9

161.9

 

Togliattikaucuk 2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supplier

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Azot Novomoskovsk

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Tomet

14.9

12.5

12.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

40.2

Metafrax

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total

14.9

12.5

13.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

40.2

 

Togliattikaucuk 2019

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supplier

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Azot Novomoskovsk

3.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.0

Tomet

13.5

13.9

14.2

13.4

9.3

11.4

12.6

12.8

11.8

13.2

12.1

14.0

152.3

Metafrax

0.0

1.4

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.7

Total

16.4

15.4

14.4

13.4

9.3

11.4

12.6

12.8

11.8

13.2

12.1

14.0

156.9

 

Kronospan 2020 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supplier

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Azot Nevinnomyssk

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

Azot Novomoskovsk

5.5

5.7

5.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

16.4

Shchekinoazot

1.3

1.0

0.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.1

Tomet

1.5

1.5

0.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.8

Total

8.5

8.2

6.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

23.4

 

Kronospan 2019 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supplier

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Azot Nevinnomyssk

1.5

2.2

0.0

0.0

1.0

1.5

1.0

0.0

0.5

1.6

1.4

2.0

12.7

Azot Novomoskovsk

4.9

4.0

6.2

6.3

3.8

5.4

6.2

5.3

5.7

5.2

2.9

4.6

60.5

Shchekinoazot

0.0

0.0

4.0

2.1

4.5

3.6

2.6

2.8

4.3

3.6

2.6

3.9

34.0

Tomet

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total

6.4

6.3

10.2

8.3

9.3

10.5

9.8

8.1

10.5

10.4

6.8

10.5

107.2

 

Metadynea 2020 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supplier

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Azot Novomoskovsk

7.1

6.8

6.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

20.7

Metafrax

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total

7.1

6.8

6.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

20.7

 

Metadynea 2019 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supplier

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Azot Novomoskovsk

5.3

5.3

7.3

3.6

2.7

4.1

4.0

7.2

4.2

3.3

4.0

7.0

58.1

Metafrax

0.6

0.0

0.7

1.9

2.8

3.0

1.4

0.8

4.6

2.2

2.0

0.0

20.0

Total

6.0

5.3

8.0

5.5

5.5

7.1

5.4

8.0

8.8

5.5

6.0

7.0

78.1

 

Uralorgsintez 2020 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supplier

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Metafrax

7.1

6.8

6.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

20.7

Total

7.1

6.8

6.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

20.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uralorgsintez 2019 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Supplier

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Metafrax

6.7

0.0

6.9

1.9

8.1

6.9

9.1

3.8

5.8

5.1

6.5

7.6

68.4

Total

6.7

0.0

6.9

1.9

8.1

6.9

9.1

3.8

5.8

5.1

6.5

7.6

68.4

 

Omsk Kaucuk 2020

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Ammoni

0.304

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0.304

Metafrax

3.453

2.681

2.606

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

8.74

Sibmetakhim

5.024

4.604

3.483

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

13.111

Total

8.781

7.285

6.089

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

22.155

 

Omsk Kaucuk 2019

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Total

Ammoni

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

 

0

Metafrax

0.837

0

1.036

1.034

0.520

1.032

1.030

0.513

0.519

0.531

1.035

1.041

9.128

Sibmetakhim

7.523

6.478

7.638

3.04

6.146

6.985

5.722

6.52

5.52

0.894

6.708

7.829

71.003

Total

8.36

6.478

8.674

4.074

6.666

8.017

6.752

7.033

6.039

1.425

7.743

8.87

80.131

Tables available on request

Russian methanol production, trade data and domestic sales by individual producer 2019-2019

Russian methanol exports by destination 2018-2020, by volume and value

Russian methanol report including production, exports, domestic sales and projects-to be published later in 2020

 

Russian Petrochemical Prices 2020 (roubles per ton)

   
Product Delivery terms 3 April 27 March 20 March
         
Ethylene VFD 43200-47200 43200-47200 43200-47200
Propylene FCA PFD 29000-30000 37500-41000 37500-41000
  FCA SFO 18000-19000 29000-30000 29000-30000
Benzene FCA NWFD ?.?.?. ?.?.?. ?.?.?.
  FCA PFD 5000-6000 34800-35500 34800-35500
  FCA SFO 4500-5600 37000-40500 37000-40500
Styrene FCA PFD 54000-60000 58000-66000 58000-66000
  EXW PFD 60000-65000 68 000-71000 68 000-71000
Methanol EXW PFD 17500–21000 17500–21000 17500–21000
  FCA PFD 17800–24000 17800–24000 17800–24000
  FCA SFO 17500–21000 17500–21000 17500–21000
  CPT Ural Federal District 18000–24000 18000–24000 18000–24000
N-butanol FCA PFD 61000-75300 61000-75300 61000-75300
  FCA SFO 41000-42000 48000-49000 48000-49000
  CPT CFD 61000-75300 61000-75300 61000-75300
Isobutanol FCA PFD 48000-72500 48000-72500 48000-72500
  FCA SFO ?.?.?. ?.?.?. ?.?.?.
  CPT CFD 48000-72500 48000-72500 48000-72500
Toluene FCA NWFD 54000-54600 54000-54600 53000-53600
  FCA CFD ?.?.?. ?.?.?. ?.?.?.
  FCA SFO 47000-48000 47500-48500 47500-48500
  FCA PFD ?.?.?. ?.?.?. ?.?.?.
Orthoxylene FCA CFD 56000-58000 56000-58000 55000-55500
  FCA PFD 48000-49000 52000-52400 52000-53400
  FCA NWFD 48000-49000 55020-55600 ?.?.?.
  FCA SFO 49000-49500 51000-51500 51000-51500
  CPT CFD 53000-55000 53000-55000 52000-52500
  CPT PFD 48000-49000 52000-53400 52000-53400
Phthalic anhydride FCA CFD 79000-83000 79000-83000 79000-81000
  FCA PFD 77000-78000 77000-78000 77000-78000
  CPT CFD 79000-83000 79000-83000 79000-81000
  CPT Ural Federal District 77000-78000 77000-78000 77000-78000
Pentaerythritol FCA CFD 119000-123000 119000-123000 119000-123000
Phenol EXW PFD ?.?.?.   ?.?.?.
  FCA PFD 28800-34700 64100-69200 64100-69200
  FCA SFO 29300-33200 66500-67700 66500-67700
  CPT CFD 33900-40000 69200-74500 69200-74500
Acetone FCA PFD 35500-37000 35000-40000 28000-32000
Dioctyl phthalate FCA PFD 77000-80000 77000-80000 77000-80000
MTBE FCA PFD 39000-48000 42600-55500 49000-55500
  FCA SFO 49000-53000 55000-56000 55000-56000
  FCA SFD 48000-50000 50000-51000 50000-51000
MEG FCA PFD 43000-50500 42000-48000 42000-48000
  CPT CFD 43000-50500 43000-48000 43000-48000
Monoethanolamine EXW PFD 108000 102000 102000
  FCA PFD 108000-113000 103000-110000 103000-110000
Diethanolamine EXW PFD 90000 90000 90000
  FCA PFD 93000-96000 93000-96000 93000-96000
Triethanolamine EXW PFD 90000 90000 90000
  FCA PFD 90000-95000 90000-95000 90000-95000
Neonol AF 9-6 FCA PFD 108000-110000 108000-110000 108000-110000
Neonol AF 9-10 FCA PFD 110000-112000 110000-112000 110000-112000
Neonol AF 9-12 FCA PFD 110000-112000 110000-112000 110000-112000
Heavy pyrolysis resin FCA ??? 13500-22000 22000-27000 22000-27000
Prices of Russian manufacturers for the main products of organic synthesis
Company
Basis Delivery point Price
roubles per ton including VAT
Benzene      
Severstal FCA Koshta 4800
Angarsk Polymer Plant FCA Sukhovskaya Yu railway . ND .
West Siberian MK FCA Novokuznetsk-Sev. 5000
Novolipetsk MK FCA Lipetsk n.s.o .
SIBUR-Kstovo FCA Kstovo n.s.o .
Gazpromneft - Omsk Oil Refinery FCA Combine 4600-6000
Slavneft - YANOS FCA Novoyaroslavskaya 5900
Ufaneftekhim FCA Country n.s.o .
Uralorgsintez FCA Rubber n.s.o .
Kirishinefteorgsintez FCA Kirishi n.s.o .
Chelyabinsk MK FCA Chelyabinsk n.s.o .
Styrene      
Angarsk Polymer Plant * FCA Angarsk ND .
Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat FCA Salavat 54,000
SIBUR-Khimprom FCA Permian 60,000
SIBUR EXW Nodal 65,000
Nizhnekamskneftekhim FCA Bikljan n.s.o .
Methanol      
Metafrax FCA Gubakha 18000-20000
Thomet FCA Tolyatti 17500–21500
Shchekinoazot * FCA Treasurer 20000-25000
Ammonium ( Mendeleevskazot ) FCA Tikhonovo 17500–21500
Sibmetahim * FCA Tomsk 17500–21500
Nitrogen (Novomoskovsk) FCA Novomoskovsk 18000-19000
N-butanol    
Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat FCA Salavat 75300
SIBUR-Khimprom FCA Permian 61000
Angarsk NHK FCA Angarsk 41000
Nevinnomyssky Nitrogen FCA Nevinnomyssk n.s.o .
Isobutanol    
Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat FCA Salavat 72500
SIBUR-Khimprom FCA Permian 48000
Angarsk NHK FCA Angarsk n.s.o .
Toluene      
Kirishinefteorgsintez FCA Kirishi 54,000
Gazpromneft - Omsk Oil Refinery FCA Omsk 47000
West Siberian MK FCA Novokuznetsk-Sev. ND .
Yaroslavnefteorgsintez FCA Yaroslavl n.s.o .
Lukoil-PNOS FCA Permian ND .
Orthoxylene    
Kirishinefteorgsintez FCA Kirishi 48000
Ufaneftekhim FCA Ufa 48000
Gazpromneft - Omsk Oil Refinery FCA Omsk 49000
Phenol      
Omsk rubber FCA Omsk 29300-33200
Kazanorgsintez FCA Kazan n.s.o .
Novokuibyshevskaya NHK FCA Samara 28800-34700
Ufaorgsintez FCA Ufa 28800-34700
Acetone      
Omsk rubber FCA Omsk 38000-39000
Kazanorgsintez FCA Kazan 42000
Novokuibyshevskaya NHK FCA Samara 35500
Ufaorgsintez FCA Ufa 37000
Monoethylene glycol  
SIBUR-Neftekhim FCA Igumnovo 43000-50000
Nizhnekamskneftekhim FCA Bikljan 42000-50400
Kazanorgsintez FCA Kazan 42000-47000
 
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